summercomfort (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
summercomfort) wrote2024-11-06 09:50 pm
summercomfort) wrote2024-11-06 09:50 pm
Whelp
Well that was an interesting election.
Yesterday morning I was still cautiously optimistic, and I even went to bed hoping that Pennsylvania and Michigan will pull through, but then woke up this morning to see that it was a pretty decisive victory for Trump.
And.... I'm... not feeling super horrible about it??? More of a "whelp" than an "augh"
I think it's because I've spent the last 4+ years arguing spouse down from whatever doom scenario they have imagined, and the reality is so much easier to deal with than "China will invade Taiwan the moment Trump takes power" or "the brown shirts are going to come for us on Nov 6" or "Trump will eliminate the Congress and we will never have another election ever again". I've spent 4+ years talking about the hypothetical Trump second term and dragging spouse back from the catastrophizing ("Xi is not that much of an idiot, and Trump doesn't like Xi" "It'll take until the inauguration at least, and not where we live" and "that's actually not constitutional, and he's not that competent") So in a way, I've been grappling with this particular Bad Timeline for quite a while. "Another 4 really shitty years under Trump" is definitely not great, but survivable.
There's also always been a part of me who was like "oh crap we're going to lose the 2024 election" ever since last October, so there's the "disappointed but not surprised" element. (The Israel-Hamas war splitting the Left, people being like "for some reason I just don't like Kamala" (like dude, the reason is sexism/racism), all the sticker shock coming out of the Pandemic, the fact that Biden is the most effective when no one notices, etc etc). I don't usually get a chance to talk about these niggling worries because everything is subsumed by Spouse's Unending Panic, but a part of me has been resigned to this scenario for quite a while now.
Another reason is because this is not actually my worst case scenario of Trump winning. Even as recently as 3 weeks ago, spouse was saying that Trump winning would mean that we should "flee for our lives", so my worst case scenario was that Trump would win and that I would have to either: (a) talk my spouse down from the "permanently emigrate to another country" plan, (b) start executing the "permanently emigrate to another country" plan, or (c) tell spouse that I'd rather break apart our family than permanently emigrate to another country. This was causing me quite a bit of stress. But something magical happened 2-3 weeks ago, which was that Spouse decided to write a whole thing where he argues with his Election Anxiety. (You can read it here! It's really good!) And miracle of miracles, the result of this is that I've had several good, non-doom convos with Spouse the last few weeks, and "permanently immigrate to another country" is off the table. Huzzah!!
It *is* kind of awkward to be, like, pretty chill at work when everyone else is like "omg this is the worst how do I cope." I'm just like, "yup, this is hella disappointing, but I guess we keep fighting."
My coworker did write a nice speech about Democracy and dissent for today's assembly, though: I'm smuggling it out via this sketchy dropbox link. Maybe some folks will find it heartening? Many people at work did.
I think, looking ahead, I'm curious to see:
- How many of the people who voted for Trump were in the White Christian Nationalist camp, vs the people who are just frustrated with the economy and wanted a change. My current guess is that the breakdown is: 35% MAGA loyalists, 20% anti-incumbent frustration, and 45% Harris. If that's the case, then the people who voted due to frustration with the economy will... probably remain frustrated, because I don't think Trump will actually solve their problems for them over the next 4 years. So they'll swing back. On the other hand, if the breakdown is more like 50% MAGA loyalists, then I would feel a lot more trepidation about the state of America and the threats to democracy in next 4 years and beyond. I guess I'll see what emboldened MAGAs are like, and whether that would be a reason enough to emigrate.
- Exactly how competent/incompetent the Trump administration is going to be this time around. I'm hoping for continued incompetence, where a lot of his campaign promises would have to be scaled back because it's just not feasible. I guess we'll see how competent the Project 2025 people are at actual governance. (For some reason, I'm flashing back to the Republicans' statebuilding efforts in Iraq under the Bush years)
- Who holds the House. He's probably going to get a Trifecta, which would suck, but hey, one can hope, right? And even with a Trifecta, would Congress actually repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, or the Respect for Marriage Act? I don't think any of these are as unpopular as ObamaCare, and they didn't manage to repeal that. Also: midterm elections in 2 years. (Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker!)
Oh, as far as local elections go, the proposition results are a mixed bag, as usual. Local rent control got rejected, the climate and school bonds passed, as well as, strangely enough, the Revenge Initiative. Not happy about the rejection of proper prison labor compensation, and bringing back the Three Strikes rule, but ... it's California, we'll probably change everything again in 4-8 years. Most of these Propositions are like "oh hey, remember that thing that y'alls approved 6 years ago? Well.... let's change that." One of the guys I don't like is going to be on City Council, but I think he'll get out-voted on most decisions. The TERF isn't going to make it to the school board, so whew.
Yesterday morning I was still cautiously optimistic, and I even went to bed hoping that Pennsylvania and Michigan will pull through, but then woke up this morning to see that it was a pretty decisive victory for Trump.
And.... I'm... not feeling super horrible about it??? More of a "whelp" than an "augh"
I think it's because I've spent the last 4+ years arguing spouse down from whatever doom scenario they have imagined, and the reality is so much easier to deal with than "China will invade Taiwan the moment Trump takes power" or "the brown shirts are going to come for us on Nov 6" or "Trump will eliminate the Congress and we will never have another election ever again". I've spent 4+ years talking about the hypothetical Trump second term and dragging spouse back from the catastrophizing ("Xi is not that much of an idiot, and Trump doesn't like Xi" "It'll take until the inauguration at least, and not where we live" and "that's actually not constitutional, and he's not that competent") So in a way, I've been grappling with this particular Bad Timeline for quite a while. "Another 4 really shitty years under Trump" is definitely not great, but survivable.
There's also always been a part of me who was like "oh crap we're going to lose the 2024 election" ever since last October, so there's the "disappointed but not surprised" element. (The Israel-Hamas war splitting the Left, people being like "for some reason I just don't like Kamala" (like dude, the reason is sexism/racism), all the sticker shock coming out of the Pandemic, the fact that Biden is the most effective when no one notices, etc etc). I don't usually get a chance to talk about these niggling worries because everything is subsumed by Spouse's Unending Panic, but a part of me has been resigned to this scenario for quite a while now.
Another reason is because this is not actually my worst case scenario of Trump winning. Even as recently as 3 weeks ago, spouse was saying that Trump winning would mean that we should "flee for our lives", so my worst case scenario was that Trump would win and that I would have to either: (a) talk my spouse down from the "permanently emigrate to another country" plan, (b) start executing the "permanently emigrate to another country" plan, or (c) tell spouse that I'd rather break apart our family than permanently emigrate to another country. This was causing me quite a bit of stress. But something magical happened 2-3 weeks ago, which was that Spouse decided to write a whole thing where he argues with his Election Anxiety. (You can read it here! It's really good!) And miracle of miracles, the result of this is that I've had several good, non-doom convos with Spouse the last few weeks, and "permanently immigrate to another country" is off the table. Huzzah!!
It *is* kind of awkward to be, like, pretty chill at work when everyone else is like "omg this is the worst how do I cope." I'm just like, "yup, this is hella disappointing, but I guess we keep fighting."
My coworker did write a nice speech about Democracy and dissent for today's assembly, though: I'm smuggling it out via this sketchy dropbox link. Maybe some folks will find it heartening? Many people at work did.
I think, looking ahead, I'm curious to see:
- How many of the people who voted for Trump were in the White Christian Nationalist camp, vs the people who are just frustrated with the economy and wanted a change. My current guess is that the breakdown is: 35% MAGA loyalists, 20% anti-incumbent frustration, and 45% Harris. If that's the case, then the people who voted due to frustration with the economy will... probably remain frustrated, because I don't think Trump will actually solve their problems for them over the next 4 years. So they'll swing back. On the other hand, if the breakdown is more like 50% MAGA loyalists, then I would feel a lot more trepidation about the state of America and the threats to democracy in next 4 years and beyond. I guess I'll see what emboldened MAGAs are like, and whether that would be a reason enough to emigrate.
- Exactly how competent/incompetent the Trump administration is going to be this time around. I'm hoping for continued incompetence, where a lot of his campaign promises would have to be scaled back because it's just not feasible. I guess we'll see how competent the Project 2025 people are at actual governance. (For some reason, I'm flashing back to the Republicans' statebuilding efforts in Iraq under the Bush years)
- Who holds the House. He's probably going to get a Trifecta, which would suck, but hey, one can hope, right? And even with a Trifecta, would Congress actually repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, or the Respect for Marriage Act? I don't think any of these are as unpopular as ObamaCare, and they didn't manage to repeal that. Also: midterm elections in 2 years. (Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker!)
Oh, as far as local elections go, the proposition results are a mixed bag, as usual. Local rent control got rejected, the climate and school bonds passed, as well as, strangely enough, the Revenge Initiative. Not happy about the rejection of proper prison labor compensation, and bringing back the Three Strikes rule, but ... it's California, we'll probably change everything again in 4-8 years. Most of these Propositions are like "oh hey, remember that thing that y'alls approved 6 years ago? Well.... let's change that." One of the guys I don't like is going to be on City Council, but I think he'll get out-voted on most decisions. The TERF isn't going to make it to the school board, so whew.
no subject
hugs you a lot
no subject
I do take some heart from the fact that I can't imagine that Trump has gotten more competent or more willing to hire actually competent people. The man chose J. D. Vance as his VP, after all.