summercomfort (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
summercomfort) wrote2020-11-01 09:17 pm
summercomfort) wrote2020-11-01 09:17 pm
Links for election night
1) I've been keeping an eye on NYT's Early Vote tracker. It is incredibly heart-warming to see just so much enthusiasm. Also, as my dad pointed out, it's a lot harder to invalidate mail-in ballots when SO MANY people are voting by mail. Like, if it's <10% of the population, it's easier to say "them" and cast doubt, but when it's 40%, it's much harder. (Not that that stops our current president, but still.) It's one thing to call for late-arriving vote-by-mail ballots to be discounted, and another to order a pause in the counting of ballots that are already there in the election offices.
2) 538's When To Expect Election Results In Every State is a good reminder to not stare too much at Pennsylvania. I kinda wish that they cross-referenced that with battleground states... aw heck, I'll do that here. Sorted by projected vote share (descending order of blue-ness). Bolded are the states that I'll be watching.
3) Do I love dragging the states into the red/blue bubbles? Yes I do: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/battleground-states.html is what I'll be using to keep score. I think the challenge is to do this without Pennsylvania, since it's likely to take a while to get all the votes counted there.
4) Anyway, best-case scenario is that we lock it in by election night / Wed morning so that Trump doesn't really have a case to take to the courts. Otherwise, it'd be time to sign up for a Protect the Results event.
Bonus links:
- The Voter Fraud study that basically boils down to: turns out "voter fraud" is mostly clerical error (things like confusing two people with the same name, or inability to spell unfamiliar names), with a smattering of databases not updating fast enough (the "dead people voting" is mostly people who sent in an absentee ballot, and then passed away, and the "non-citizens voting" is mostly people who were naturalized a month before voting) and provisional ballot accidents (messing up a ballot, casting a provisional one, and then the polling place forgetting to shred the original one). Handy to know if people start talking about voter fraud! Also, here's a pretty map breaking down how mail-in ballots are verified. (buried here)
- Enough people have voted early in Nevada that if you run the numbers on the remaining votes, it's pretty much locked in for Biden -- the urban Dem mail-in is +89,000 votes, and the max the rural Rep vote lean is +80,000 votes, but is probably closer to +60,000 (link, but it's kind of a confusing article)
2) 538's When To Expect Election Results In Every State is a good reminder to not stare too much at Pennsylvania. I kinda wish that they cross-referenced that with battleground states... aw heck, I'll do that here. Sorted by projected vote share (descending order of blue-ness). Bolded are the states that I'll be watching.
| State | Electoral Votes | Forecasted vote share | Election night results | % early votes (Nov 1) |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 43-55 | all: mostly in-person | 24% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 45-54 | most: absentees pre-counted | 53% |
| Michigan | 16 | 45-54 | some: absentee count starting Nov 2 | 53% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 46-53 | most: should be in overnight | 62% |
| Nevada | 6 | 46-52 | most: early absentees pre-counted, all mail-in | 88% |
| Pennyslvania | 20 | 47-52 | some: absentee counting doesn't start until election day, Nov 6 mail deadline | 38% |
| Nebraska 2 | 1 | 48-51 | all: absentees pre-counted, no late absentees | 53% |
| Arizona | 11 | 48-51 | most: early absentees + election day, late absentee until Nov 6 | 87% |
| Florida | 29 | 49-51 | all: absentees pre-counted, no late-absentees | 86% |
| Maine 2 | 1 | 48-50 | most: absentees pre-counted, but also ranked choice voting | 62% |
| North Carolina | 15 | 49-51 | most: early absentee + election day, but late absentee goes until Nov 12 | 91% |
| Georgia | 16 | 49-50 | all: absentees pre-counted, no late-absentees | 93% |
| Ohio | 18 | 50-50 | most: early absentee + election day, but late absentee goes until Nov 13 | 49% |
| Texas | 38 | 50-49 | most: early absentee + election day, late absentee deadline Nov 4 | 108% |
| Iowa | 6 | 50-48 | most: early absentee + election day, but late absentee goes until Nov 9 | 56% |
3) Do I love dragging the states into the red/blue bubbles? Yes I do: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/battleground-states.html is what I'll be using to keep score. I think the challenge is to do this without Pennsylvania, since it's likely to take a while to get all the votes counted there.
4) Anyway, best-case scenario is that we lock it in by election night / Wed morning so that Trump doesn't really have a case to take to the courts. Otherwise, it'd be time to sign up for a Protect the Results event.
Bonus links:
- The Voter Fraud study that basically boils down to: turns out "voter fraud" is mostly clerical error (things like confusing two people with the same name, or inability to spell unfamiliar names), with a smattering of databases not updating fast enough (the "dead people voting" is mostly people who sent in an absentee ballot, and then passed away, and the "non-citizens voting" is mostly people who were naturalized a month before voting) and provisional ballot accidents (messing up a ballot, casting a provisional one, and then the polling place forgetting to shred the original one). Handy to know if people start talking about voter fraud! Also, here's a pretty map breaking down how mail-in ballots are verified. (buried here)
- Enough people have voted early in Nevada that if you run the numbers on the remaining votes, it's pretty much locked in for Biden -- the urban Dem mail-in is +89,000 votes, and the max the rural Rep vote lean is +80,000 votes, but is probably closer to +60,000 (link, but it's kind of a confusing article)
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ofc! :)
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I am writing drabbles for people who have voted here and if we share any fandoms, I'd be happy to write for you.